Assignment #3 [Kiron Chandy]

Hypothesis: We were asked to examine the validity of the following hypothesis: Nations with larger Catholic populations would reflect a higher birth rate. Why? The Catholic Church has traditionally abnegated the use of birth control for practicing Catholics. So, it could be expected that people in predominantly Catholic countries adhere to Church teaching and use contraceptives less frequently than those in countries with fewer Catholics. And consequently, one would expect more children to be born.

Data Set: In order to test this hypothesis, we were asked to compare 6 countries with over 65% of the population identifying as Catholic to 3 countries with less than 5% of the population identifying as Catholic. I chose Poland, Italy, Spain, Argentina, and Venezuela for the former data set (largely Catholic countries), and Sweden, Romania, and Japan as the latter (e.g., less Catholic countries). These demographic statistics were compiled from the CIA World Factbook.

Analysis: As the data and trends suggest, there is little correlation between Catholic identity and contraceptive use. In fact, contraceptive use is quite consistent across all 9 countries examined, at an average of 68.9% and not much deviation from the mean. Take the case of Argentina which has a sizeable Catholic population, but has the highest use of contraceptives. Clearly, since Catholic identity is not correlated with contraceptive use, it is unlikely that it influences the use of contraceptives and that there are other variables at work.

There is more positive, stronger correlation between contraceptive use and infant mortality. This may make sense in light of the r-selection theory Dr. King brought up in class. A country having more offspring take a shorter time to reproduce, have higher infant mortality rates, and less parental investment. Those living in countries where the infant mortality rate is perceived to be high (Venezuela, Mexico, and Argentina) will be motivated to have more children so that they can maximize the chance that a few will survive.

Higher physician density appears to be correlated with higher contraceptive use. This may be because countries where more physicians are available are able to provide greater education and awareness about the benefits of contraceptive use to parents.

Conclusion:
Catholic identity does not highly correlate with contraceptive use, unlike other factors like infant mortality, physician density, and other factors which more likely influence the use of contraceptives in the countries we have examined.