Byron Guo Assignment #3

Byron Guo Assignment #3

            My three out-group nations that will serve as a control will be Iceland, Japan, and Laos. None of the listed nations have a Catholic majority and they are pulled from different continents and are of varying economic conditions. The catholic countries that I will be using are Poland, Italy, Spain, Argentina, Mexico, and East Timor.

Catholic Countries	Birth Rate/ 1k Women	Catholic Population	Fertility Rate	Physician Density	Infant Mortality	Life Expectancy
Timor-Leste	34.85	98%	5.22	0.1/1k	40.09/1k	67.06
Mexico	18.61	82.7%	2.25	2.89/1k	16.26/1k	76.86
Italy	8.94	80%	1.41	4.24/1k	10.01/1k	81.95
Spain	10.14	94%	1.48	3.71/1k	3.35/1k	81.37
Chile	14.2	70%	1.85	1.09.1k	7.19/1K	76.45
Poland	9.88	89.8%	1.32	2.14/1k	6.3/1K	76.45

Non-Catholic Countries	Birth Rate/1k Women	Catholic Population	Fertility Rate	Physician Density	Infant Mortality	Life Expectancy
Laos	25.23	0.6%	2.98	0.27/1k	56.13	63.14
Iceland	13.15	2.5%	1.88	3.93/1k	3.17	81.11
Japan	8.23	0.4%	1.39	2.06	2.17	84.19

            Given the data shown above I have concluded that a countries birth and fertility rate are less correlated with the percentage of Catholics in the population and more to do with the infant mortality rate and life expectancy. For example while Timor-Leste, an overwhelmingly Catholic country, has a very high fertility rate of 5.22 one might assume that the correlation of Catholics to high birth rates is correct. However upon further examination one will notice that countries like Spain and Poland also have comparable Catholic populations, both over 90%, yet have almost a fifth the fertility rate of Timor-Leste. More so Chile and Italy have a lesser Catholic population than Spain and Poland yet share very similar fertility rates. Mexico has about the same percentage of Catholics as Italy but has a birthrate that is twice as high as Italy. These anomalies do show that having a higher percentage of Catholics does not mean necessarily more babies. Instead one can look at the physician density and infant mortality rates to solve this question. The countries where doctors are scarcer lead to more infants dying at birth or near birth. Looking at the table this is true in every case. Timor-Leste (98% Catholic) has almost no doctors and an infant mortality rate of almost 13 times that of Spain (94% Catholic).

            Examining the non-Catholic countries as a control we can see this to be true. Laos only has a 0.6% Catholic population and no restrictions on birth control. However Laos’s fertility and birth rate is higher than that of any of the listed Catholic countries save Timor-Leste. Laos too shares Timor’s problem of scarce doctors and high infant mortality. High infant mortality means that parents will try more often for children knowing that the chance of a child dying is high. Meanwhile Japan and Iceland both have a much higher physician density than Laos or Timor-Leste and therefore more babies survive birth. Furthermore the average life expectancy of a citizen is 20 years higher. As you can see from the chart this leads to a dramatic decrease in fertility and birth rates.

Source: CIA World Factbook